President Yoon at his inauguration in 2022, official Flickr account of the Republic of Korea

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After Yoon Suk-Yeol, South Korea Faces Trouble at Home and Abroad

by Yin Xuan Peng

South Korea faces a series of thorny problems after President Yoon’s short-lived declaration of martial law. His illegal declaration angered and alarmed the general public in South Korea. The memory of the sufferings that people endured in the decades of military dictatorship under Park Chung-Hee (1963-1979) and Chun Doo-Hwan (1980-1988) are ineradicable.

The protesters, who represent the majority in South Korea, demonstrate in the streets. They are calling on President Yoon to step down from the presidency. South Korea faces unprecedented challenges caused by the bitter and perpetual factional struggles between politicians, who have never ceased accusing each other of abusing their power. South Korean politicians on all sides have constantly accused each other of suppressing political dissent.

The 2024 South Korean legislative election was convincingly won by the opposition party, The Democratic Party, which gained 173 seats out of a total of 300. In contrast the current ruling party, the People’s Power Party, heading the cabinet with 108 seats, was reduced to a minority in the National Assembly.

Lee Jae-Myung, President Yoon’s single biggest foe, achieved a landslide victory which has enabled the opposition party to ascend into the majority. The defeat sparked off President Yoon’s worst fears for his own political future. The victory of the opposition generated an enormous hostility towards The Democratic Party from its more established opponents.

In such a precariously partisan political situation it is unlikely that such stubborn opponents who dedicated themselves so passionately to winning the South Korean presidential battle would soften their attitudes and reconcile afterwards. The recent investigations into bribery and corruption involving South Korea’s First Lady, Kim Keon-Hee, caused a general scandal and released a wave of political turmoil just prior to the election and probably affected the result, worsening the atmosphere.

After his party lost hold of the National Assembly, President Yoon launched an investigation against the Democratic Party leader, Lee Jae-Myung, who was then convicted of breaking electoral laws. President Yoon also launched investigations into other opposition figures, who government prosecutors accused of participating in “anti-state activities”. Viewed in this light, the embattled President, rashly and unwisely never bothered to conceal his resentment and vehement anger towards Lee Jae-Myung and the successful Democratic Party. This lack of tolerance and reserve has long constituted a part of South Korea’s acrimonious and volatile political climate.

In the meantime, the Yoon Suk-Yeol government with a lack of solid power is experiencing tremendous difficulties in implementing its programmes as a result of the reluctance of opposition parties to reach consensus. The harsh reality is that when President Yoon declared a state of emergency in South Korea, abandoning that same declaration shortly afterwards in the face of huge opposition and protest, South Korea was plunged into a chaos it has not known for many decades. For years South Korea has had a relatively stable democracy. President Yoon’s ill-fated, almost tragic, attempt to secure power has led to a period of massive political and social upheaval. Factional disputes among possible presidential candidates have provided grounds for a predictable political stalemate which will be hard to break in the short-term.

Although Lee Jae-Myung – and other South Korean political speculators – are determined to remove President Yoon soon using a joint impeachment motion, President Yoon made a pledge to fight to the end in the faint hope of surviving an oncoming political storm. In the second round of voting the number of members of The National Assembly who cast their ballot to suspend President Yoon from duty reached more than two-thirds. This shows that many of the members in the National Assembly changed their positions based on considerations of ‘belief and conscience’.

From the perspective of the representatives of six other South Korean opposition parties, President Yoon’s botched and illegal attempt at the imposition of martial law caught South Korea’s allies and partners off guard. His declaration of a state of emergency incurred scathing criticism worldwide, too, and his actions have had widespread geo-political ramifications.

The international community has raised concerns about the outcome of South Korea’s next power transition via the presidential campaign, which will prompt world leaders to recalculate foreign policy modes to engage with South Korea.

From the viewpoint of China

The perpetual competition for a prestigious position around the Korean peninsula is about to enter a new age of challenge and opportunity in the wake of President Yoon’s ouster. The end of Yoon’s presidency will be a milestone. It will provide a marker in the development of South Korea’s democratic principles and highlight polarisation.

A political gridlock now seems inevitable. It will follow President Yoon’s removal from power and it will be the most likely outcome of a political crisis spiralling out of control. The unpredictability of outcomes and a growing power vacuum will fuel speculation about the future of the intricate and evolving Sino-South Korean relationship, with the antagonisms between the United States and China looming large in the background. In addition, inter-Korean relations, which are so important to the stability and prosperity of both Koreas have been seriously disrupted since South Korean conservative politicians came to power in 2022. The new government actions and policies resulted in the paralysis of the official channels available for peaceful dialogue between North Korea and South Korea.

Given the troubling and escalating divisions among South Korean lawmakers, it must now be South Korea’s top priority to clear a path for national stability and prosperity. The actions that need to be taken to create that stability will have profound implications for regional dynamics. So far, however, South Korea has not devised or implemented the vital strategies needed to improve relations with its nuclear-armed neighbour to the North.

On the contrary, actions taken by the Conservatives have jeopardised the current balance of power and triggered North Korean bellicosity. The result is an increased security threat from North Korea. From the viewpoint of China, the clear perception is that South Korea is attempting to diminish China’s role as the rising power of northeast Asia. Under the leadership of Yoon Suk-Yeol, South Korea has implemented the “Pro-Washington approach” and softened its historically antagonistic attitude towards Japan. This enabled the Yoon administration to deepen Southern Triangle relations (USA, Korea and Japan) in the context of this escalating Sino-United States confrontation.

Stable and prosperous relations between the two Koreas and between China and Korea are, for the moment, not in the interests of the United States. Moreover, since South Korea has moved into closer orbit of the United States, restrictions on China’s semiconductor industry have been introduced – with the support of the Conservatives. These restrictions are clearly contrary to South Korea’s own economic interests.

China aims to discourage the United States and its allies from undermining China’s core interests in the Korean peninsula. China has significant political sway, economic leverage and military and technological presence in both Koreas. Chinese President Xi Jinping recently voiced deep concern about the state of peace and progress on the Korean peninsula during his meeting with the United States’ outgoing Biden presidential team at the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit.

China, South Korea’s largest trading partner, seeks to wield influence over Korean affairs, and it is expected to see two main completely different prospects for the complicated Sino-South Korean diplomacy. China has expressed discontent with South Korea’s close military alliance with the United States and its regional integration with Japan in the Southern Triangle. However, viewed from the perspective of the Chinese national government, China does not intend to involve itself in local potential geopolitical turbulence that could cause serious damage to the balance of regional and international stability and security.

On one hand, if the conservative group returns to power, China’s relations with South Korea will continue in its current status of provocative diplomacy. However, this continued antagonism towards China will have the advantage of reinforcing Korea’s security and economic cooperation with the United States-led Southern Triangle. President Yoon promoted himself as a reliable partner to the Southern Triangle, so continued antagonism towards China would be a logical policy for the Conservatives to adopt.

On the other hand, China and South Korea will improve the bilateral diplomacy between if Lee Jae-Myung or another member of the Progressive Democratic Party is elected as the next South Korean president. This will reverse the Southern Triangle’s current gains in northeast Asia and reduce friction in the Sino-Korean diplomatic relationship

The United States holds considerable sway in South Korean politics, however, closer relations between South Korea and China, benefitting peace and the Korean economy, could deliver a lethal blow to the United States’ plans to put more pressure on China’s national advancement in the field of diplomacy, economy and science.

In the event of the victory of the opposition, the two neighbours, China and Korea will be able to focus on the expansion of reciprocal economic cooperation and friendly diplomacy, which will revive trust between the two countries, despite the fact that the ongoing conflict between the major powers is creating such a tumultuous political environment. The Southern Triangle will be in serious jeopardy if South Korea becomes more conciliatory and does not continue with the “Pro-Washington approach”, undermining Korea’s relationship with the USA.

Suggested reading

Han, Sung-joo. (1980). South Korea and the United States: the alliance survives. Asian Survey, 20(11), 1075-1086.

Hao, Yu-fan. (1987). China and the Korean peninsula: a Chinese perspective. Asian Survey, 27(8), 862-884.

Jia, Hao. & Zhuang, Qu-bing. (1992). China’s policy towards the Korean peninsula. Asian Survey, 32(12), 1137-1156.

Liu, Hong. (1993). The Sino-South Korean normalization: a triangular explanation. Asian Survey, 33(11), 1083-1094.

Oberdorfer, Don. (2001). The Two Koreas: a contemporary history. Basic Books.

Pratt, Keith. (2007). Everlasting flower: a history of Korea. Reaktion Books.

Sneider, Daniel. (2024). A Tale of Three Triangles: The Complicated Geopolitics of Northeast Asia. The Peninsula, Available from: Senators https://keia.org/the-peninsula/a-tale-of-three-triangles-the-complicated-geopolitics-of-northeast-asia/.

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Dr Yin Xuan Peng is researching into China’s policy towards South Korea: 1961-2017 at the University of Central Lancashire. Her main speciality is Chinese foreign policy and the Sino-South Korean diplomacy in the modern era. In particular her research delves into examining the influence of China’s national interest calculations, domestic political climate, and the Chinese leadership’s diplomatic perceptions with regards to China’s policy changes – from the “Non-Policy” to the “Two-Koreas Policy”.